Daily Archives: January 19, 2010

Managed-Care Stocks Up, Pharmaceuticals up on possible Coakley upset

funny Obama pirate Prospects of a possible Republican upset in Massachusetts’ special election for the late Edward Kennedy’s U.S. Senate seat lifted major managed-care stocks and pressured hospital shares Tuesday.

A victory by Republican Scott Brown over Democrat Martha Coakley would threaten legislation to overhaul the nation’s health-coverage laws by eliminating the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

The health-care legislation–being negotiated and moving closer to final passage after months of rancor and compromise–is viewed as risky for health-insurer profits, even though it promises to bring companies millions of additional health-plan members. Hospitals caring for large numbers of uninsured patients are seen as benefiting from an expansion of health coverage to millions more Americans.

Shares of the large, diversified managed-care concerns traded up by roughly 1% to 5% Tuesday afternoon, led by Coventry Health Care Inc. (CVH). Hospital stocks were down about 1% to 3%, with Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC) recently sliding the most. Stock market moves–both up and down–had been more pronounced in the morning.

Several recent polls suggested Massachusetts voters were leaning toward Brown to replace Kennedy, a stalwart Democrat who crusaded for universal health care.

“Health-care stocks are likely to rally in the event of a GOP Senate seat win given the implied higher odds that health-reform efforts are thwarted, notwithstanding investor comfort with the Senate version of reform has increased significantly over the past three months,” Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Borsch said. Managed-care companies with large Medicare Advantage exposure, including Humana Inc. (HUM), would likely have the strongest upside if investors think the health overhaul will fail, the firm said.

“By contrast, hospital stocks might be under pressure, as these companies have been viewed as net winners under reform,” Goldman said.

Wells Fargo analyst Matt Perry expects Congress to pass a health-overhaul bill in the next several weeks, although a Brown victory would raise the chances of nonpassage to 25% to 30%, from the current level of zero to 10%, he said. Perry noted that Democrats have ways of passing an overhaul bill even if Brown wins.

Leerink Swann analysts don’t expect health-overhaul legislation to be derailed.

“A Senate win by long-shot Republican Brown would mean the end of the filibuster-proof majority and likely dilute health-care reform further, but we still think a benign version gets passed,” the firm said. “No matter the outcome, [Democrats] are in trouble in November midterm elections. Good news for health-care investors.”

Paul Keckley, executive director of the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, said the race is an early test of the pending health-overhaul legislation, as Brown appears to be running a campaign against health reform while Coakley maintains Kennedy’s pro-overhaul position.

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Black Conservatives Take Lead in Tea Party Movement

Contrary to the popular beliefs put forth by the American media, there are actually minorities that call themselves conservatives. We routinely hear about racial stereotypes and racial profiling, yet the media racially profiles minorities on a daily basis by convincing America that virtually every minority is a democrat.

Lloyd Marcus’ conservatism started when he was 9. His family had just moved out of the “ghetto” to a brand-new high rise in Baltimore — within months, he said, the “dream come true” turned into a nightmare, as the building of welfare-collecting black residents became a den of crime. Black conservative Lloyd Marcus

His father moved the family out as soon as he got a job with the city fire department, but “my cousins never escaped,” Marcus said. He cried as he told the story.

Marcus, a black conservative who is now involved in the growing tea party movement, attributes the problems of his childhood neighborhood, his extended family and the black community in general to a “cradle-to-grave government dependency” that in the case of his cousins enabled an idle life of crime and drug abuse.

To Marcus, President Obama’s policies perpetuate that dependency. That’s why, he says, it baffles him and other black conservatives when the tea party movement is dismissed as somehow anti-black, as a rowdy bunch of ignorant, white protesters who have it in for the nation’s first black president.

“This is the nicest angry mob I’ve ever seen,” Marcus said.

Marcus is one of a number of black conservatives who have joined up with, and helped lead, the conservative tea party movement since its inception. Though the movement has attracted criticism for its supposed lack of diversity — MSNBC host Chris Matthews recently called the groups “monochromatic” and “all white” — those minority activists who are involved say the movement has little to do with race, and that it is attracting a more diverse crowd every day.

“I think a lot of black people are waking up from their Obama night-of-the-living-dead fog,” Marcus said. “They were walking around like zombies going Obama, Obama, Obama.”

He and other black conservatives connected with one of the hundreds of tea party groups across America were largely active in conservative and Republican causes before the movement’s start in early 2009. They spoke and wrote about the need for smaller government, lower spending and lower taxes and warned that Obama’s candidacy would pose a threat to those values.

But in the tea party movement they found a group that not only reflected their views but provided a platform.

Marcus campaigned with a group against Obama in the 2008 election. But the Florida resident, who is a musician, gained a degree of fame in the tea party world a year ago when he cut a “tea party anthem” song — in it, he belted about the dangers of wealth redistribution to a gospel-sounding backup track.

“In less than a week, the song was national,” Marcus said. He was asked to sing at an Orlando tea party rally last spring and has since performed at rallies across the country. He’s traveled cross-country on both Tea Party Express tours and plans to join up for the third tour this March.

Marcus does not advocate for the creation of a third party, but said the tea party groups should serve to pull the Republican Party back to the conservative roots from which it has strayed.

William Owens, a black author and publisher who with his wife traveled on the Tea Party Express tours with Marcus and has spoken at just about every stop along the way, also came out strongly against Obama in 2008. He published the book, “Obama: Why Black America Should Have Doubts,” before the election, in an attempt to address what he called a “misguided passion” toward the former Illinois senator in black America.

When the tea party movement started, he said he found a way to build on what he was already doing, outside the Republican Party system which he calls out of touch. He first spoke at a rally in Las Vegas on tax day last April.

“It was just a natural fit,” Owens said.

He said the rallies are still “mostly white,” but that more blacks are getting involved. He took particular umbrage at Matthews’ comment, blasting out a press release that criticized the MSNBC host for “pushing conservative black Americans to the back of the media bus.”

Owens now publishes a journal documenting the tea party cross-country tours. The Multi-Cultural Conservative Coalition is also sponsoring the next leg of the Tea Party Express.

Despite the enthusiastic involvement of black conservatives in the tea party rallies and trips, Obama still enjoys seemingly unshakable support from the majority of black Americans. A recent poll from Gallup put Obama’s approval rating among blacks at 91 percent. Among whites, that number was 42 percent.

Tea party groups also might not be doing themselves any favors when some of their supporters are photographed holding somewhat shocking signs at rallies — such as one last year that said, “The White House has a lyin’ African.”

But such demonstrators may be the exception.

Charles Lollar, a Maryland-based tea party supporter who is black, said there’s no validity to the racism charges.

“I’ve seen black faces in the crowd. I’ve seen Latino faces in the crowd. … It’s not a movement of color. It’s not a movement of party. It’s a movement of principle. It’s a movement of America,” Lollar said.

Lollar started speaking at tea party events last winter and said his biggest motivation is opposition to the stimulus package — both the $787 billion package that passed last February and the sequel that some Democrats are trying to push this year.

Lollar has since parlayed his activism into a high-stakes campaign. The Charles County businessman is hoping win the GOP nomination to challenge House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., in the congressional midterm this November.

“When we beat him in November, it’s going to send a strong message across the country,” he said.

Lollar, whose previous post was as chairman of the Charles County Republican Central Committee, has an uphill battle to unseat the nation’s second most powerful House Democrat.

Hoyer has been in office nearly three decades, and his latest campaign finance report put his available cash at $1.3 million. Lollar said he’s raised $40,000 — he aims to raise $2.5 million by fall.

Lollar is running from within the GOP apparatus. But it remains to be seen whether the party establishment will reach out to other tea party conservatives like him to ensure they stay loyal to the Republican Party and not challenge it like Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman did in New York state. Hoffman, who is white, pushed out the Republican candidate in the race for Congressional District 23, and ended up losing narrowly to Democrat Bill Owens.

David Avella, executive director of Republican recruiter GOPAC, said his organization hasn’t been actively mining the tea party movement for state and local candidates but that the groups could prove fertile ground for candidates.

“Many in the tea party movement are Republicans who want to make sure the party gets back to its fiscal discipline days,” he said, calling those activists natural “allies.”

Tea partiers point to recent political coups they say demonstrate the movement’s broadening influence and appeal. And they say they feel a certain freedom in the scattered leadership of the movement, as opposed to the top-down style of the GOP.

“I think it’s great that we have all these different organizations and they have nobody in charge,” Marcus said.

Marcus cited Hoffman’s influence in the New York race as well as Republican Scott Brown’s bid for the Massachusetts Senate seat once held by Ted Kennedy. Brown, while not sprouting from the tea party movement, is supported by it as he enjoys a late-in-the-game surge in the race.

“This is a movement that has swept the country,” Marcus said. “It has really been the rebirth of conservatism in America.”

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Pelosi: “We will have healthcare — one way or another”

Nancy Pelosi funny facelist pictureNancy Pelosi is an idiot. This is the same Nancy Pelosi that with the help of Henry Waxman, helped to put California in the financial crisis that we find ourselves in with her socialist spending at the state level. Now these two morons are doing the same to America.

Given what looks like the impending loss of the party’s Senate supermajority, Democrats have reason to be down in the dumps about healthcare reform. But if that’s the way House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s feeling, she’s not showing it publicly.

“Let’s remove all doubt, we will have healthcare one way or another,” Pelosi said during an event in San Francisco on Monday. “Certainly the dynamic would change depending on what happens in Massachusetts. Just the question about how we would proceed. But it doesn’t mean we won’t have a health care bill.”

There is one way to pass the bill, even without 60 votes in the Senate, that’s getting a lot of attention now. But Pelosi probably won’t like it, and neither will a fair amount of her members.

The procedure in question would involve simply having the House vote on the bill that the Senate has already passed. That would mean avoiding yet another cloture vote in the Senate, one Democrats would be likely to lose if their caucus is down to 59 members after the special election in Massachusetts on Tuesday.

House liberals will be upset about this idea, and progressive activists would likely be angry as well, but it may well be the only option left, and Democrats are reportedly leaning towards it. On Monday night, the New York Times reported: “The White House and Democratic Congressional leaders, scrambling for a backup plan to rescue their health care legislation if Republicans win the special election in Massachusetts on Tuesday, are preparing to ask House Democrats to approve the Senate version of the bill, which would send the measure directly to President Obama for his signature.”

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Brown will pull off upset in Massachusetts

Big Fat Ted Kennedy funnyPolls across the board show Republican Scott Brown about to take the Massachusetts Senate seat that has been in the Kennedy clan since JFK. The Obama/Pelosi partnership is about to get scrambled, and the White House is looking to the Reagan presidency for guidance.

Reagan faced a similarly bleak economy, huge unemployment and a backlash against his economic program. He famously vowed to “stay the course” but suffered midterm losses and allowed some of his tax cuts to be rolled back.

The economy made a powerful recovery and Reagan was easily re-elected. But the Pelosi view of the Obama presidency as a chance for a liberal rebirth will be rethought. The “big bang” theory of trying to do as much as possible in the first year — when a president’s political capital is highest — is over. Democrats feel health reform took too long and diverted them from focusing on jobs. Reports from Massachusetts — the model for the national health bill — tell of a voter backlash against health reform and deficit spending. If Brown wins, it’s hard to see politically how Democrats muscle the health legislation through Congress, whatever their technical options.

Independents outnumber both parties and have swung recent elections to Republicans in Virginia, New Jersey and now apparently Massachusetts. Stanford University political scientist Morris Fiorina has argued that the electorate is not nearly as polarized as most people think. Independents are also notoriously fickle and lack the deep ideological commitments animating voters in both parties. Watch for a swing to the middle and a search for something like Clinton and Gingrich’s welfare reform. Republicans smelling blood will make that hard to pull off, but the administration shows signs of looking toward education policy as a place to start.

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Video: Wyclef Jean cries at Press Conference

Wyclef Jean still deserves to be scrutinized over the way he has been spending monies donated to his charity whether he cries or not. You don’t spend charitable donations only on companies the charity owns. JD

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